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Forum category:
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Delta Contest
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Cenimar
1 Oct 2006
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Our first Delta Contest started at midnight last night. All our future Delta Contests will have a two month cycle. This first Delta Contest has a short duration - just over one month.
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Cenimar
1 Oct 2006
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Note that participating in (or winning) the Delta Contest does not affect your standing in the Main Contest. However, accepting an award from the Main Contest will lower your standing in the Delta Contest.
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Deymond
11 Nov 2006
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Congratulations to Rugby and Tiger.
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FeastOrFamine46
11 Nov 2006
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Yes, congrats! What everyone on this leaderboard did was downright phenomenal. Keep it up!
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agent 41011
30 Nov 2006
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hmmm i hope i can get this.. that is if i can understand this site!
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FeastOrFamine46
4 Dec 2006
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Cenimar, can you show the Delta value for each market maker, like you have shown the portfolio? I am interested in the gains made by the general contest leaders, but there's no way to see Delta values for them.
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Templar Knight
4 Dec 2006
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I like that idea, Cenimar can put in the Delta value and everbody's intel amount at the same time.
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The Wind Adept
6 Dec 2006
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That's fine by me, but it will make me look bad... (0.00)
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Templar Knight
6 Dec 2006
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lol, me too (0.02)
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Cenimar
19 Dec 2006
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We finally got this done. Delta Value and Cash Value are now shown on the public portfolio.
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Razmig
19 Dec 2006
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Cenimar, I think that the cash value amount is messed up. A lot of traders don't have enough cash.
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Razmig
19 Dec 2006
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Actually, the cash balance is actually showing the amount of real dollars that each trader has deposited or made. I'm not sure if that's what you were going for but the icon to the left of the real money amount is I$ which might be what is misleading me.
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Cenimar
20 Dec 2006
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We did display the incorrect value for Intel Balance. It has now been fixed.
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agent 42114
7 Dec 2006
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hi!
I'm Diana and i'm not sure if i'm participating in the contest of $100 because i can't find my ranking neither my competitors, thus i would thank you a lot if you just answer me and tell me my rank and how many are playing for the $100 prize so i can have a better idea of this... thx bb.
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Templar Knight
7 Dec 2006
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Since you are new, if you do well you will most likely see yourself on the Delta Leaderboard soon. In fact, if you get up to about I$ 400 you will be on the leaderboard. If you just maximize your referral bonus (found on 'my account summary'), you can get to I$ 400 with no risk involved. Good luck!
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Edward
9 Dec 2006
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I'm kind of new to all this so what EXACTLY am I supposed to do? Got any advice or anything? I could use some. I don't quite get all of this.
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Carlos D
9 Dec 2006
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look thru the available contracts section and find a contract that you have some sort of opinion on. when you click on one of the contracts, a page will come up with a bunch of options (each row is an option).
pick one of the options that you agree with and click on the underlined 'trade' link. there you can buy only (since you dont have anything to sell yet). you can choose to pay either whatever the going ''ask price'' is or you can set a ''limit trade''. read ''how it works'' under ''prediction market'' for more info. the existing help stuff is pretty good. good luck!
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Sexy Tom
9 Dec 2006
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who? what!_? when#? where did fx trader come from with 1.29 delta. Everyone was below .80 delta a few hours ago.
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Carlos D
9 Dec 2006
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yeah, that's shaaaaady
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Razmig
9 Dec 2006
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He might have bought in. I$4000 has been sold today and that's more than enough to boost a newer trader to that delta level.
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Edward
14 Dec 2006
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Thanks Carlos, but I have another question. In your opinion do you find it better to sell under the market order selection or under the Limit where you set your own price. And how do you know what is a good limit. I have attempted using the Estimated Price from my stock portfolio page, but it doesn't seem to sell. Then I attempted the market order and it sold for allmost half the Estimated Price What would you suggest. Thank you again.
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Carlos D
14 Dec 2006
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heh, no problem, i just started on this site a month ago. based on my vast amount (or a month) of experience, limit trades are the safe way to go. market orders are only useful when you are absolutely sure you have to get rid of something (you know the price is gonna drop in value significantly very soon or the option is definitely a loser) or buy something (you know the price is gonna go up or you know this option is going to win).
if you want to buy something at the ask price you see or sell something at the bid price you see, just set a limit trade equal to that amount. that way, if there is only a small quantity available at that specific price, you will only buy/sell those few options available at that price and the rest of your limit order will remain open, rather than the market order where it will buy/sell however many options you requested no matter how few are available at the price you see.
for example, if you wanna sell 10 shares of an option that you see has a bid price of 8.00, and in reality the person who made that bid only wanted 1 share, then a market order will sell 1 share at 8.00 and 9 at whatever the next 9 highest bid prices are, which could be anywhere from 0 to 7.99. i got screwed like that the first day i was trading too. with a limit order it will sell the 1 share at 8.00 and then wait until someone else puts in bids for 9 shares for 8.00 or a market order.
and as far as pricing, i suggest just follow the option's going price for a few days (read the charts to the left of each option), and pay attention to news that might make the values go up or down. alternatively, just charge/pay what everyone else is charging/paying or beat them by a penny.
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Edward
15 Dec 2006
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Thank you. I'll take such vast, I geuss, knowledge to heart. Thanks again and i will start buying and selling.
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agent 25440
18 Dec 2006
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I don't get this. Please help anyone.
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Edward
19 Dec 2006
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Ask Carlos. He get it.
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shaydinthedesert
21 Dec 2006
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I am utterly, completely, and without compass At sea with all of this predicting and trading. Like the predicting the future schoolastic scholarship contest (which was the reason that I joined cenimar or even heard of it!)When was the cuttoff date to enter, when is the date that the constest ends and the numbers are tallied. Also if a stock of yours shoots up like 500% in less than 12 hours is it a good idea to sell half and retain half of the stock to pad your gains and your intel account or would it be better not to hedge and just stick with that option. I have done precious little selling since I joined, about three weeks ago, due to the fact that hitherto I could not predict my way our of a cyber paper bag!
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Sexy Tom
21 Dec 2006
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It's tough getting started but to answer a few of your q's... theres not cutoff date to enter the contest. However the start date of the main contest was december 10 and the delta contest was november 10. The main contest ends Feb. 10 and the delta contest ends Jan 10. Then it starts over again (you dont lose any I$) And about when to sell your stocks, it really depends on the situation. For example, if your stock goes up 500% like from $1 to $6, and theres a 50-50 chance of getting it correct, it would be wise to sell and collect your profits. But if your stock goes up and you find a high probability or have absolute proof that your stock option is going to be correct, keep that stuff and sell highest or wait for settlement. Basically predicting and profitable trading on this site involves much research and everyone has their own method/strategy of trading. It will probably help if you read the FAQ and strategies that cenimar provides under PREDICTION MARKET and HELP.
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luketheinvestor
3 Jan 2007
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Advisory Entry #1: In my opinion, the very best traders, with the time and inclination to do so, take advantage of financial contracts and follow the financial news closely. Other contracts are mostly speculation on chance and you are on your own then; although people still make money off those, a lot more money is lost. My Delta jumped from .76 to .92 in two days, and it would have jumped higher if I had bought before the holidays, because I learned that copper companies were developing large inventories. I bought as much stock as I could of 2.9> and waited. I bought about 150 shares at an average of 4.50 (buying from 3.20 to 6). Its bid at time of writing was 7.26 and sale at 9.77. It will probably split and win. You do the math. Also, doing things this way is smart investing, because you are not just buying multiples of all the shares knowing at least one contract will win.
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Sexy Tom
3 Jan 2007
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I wish my delta changed that much when I make 1k+ profit off a contract.
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The Wind Adept
5 Jan 2007
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No kidding.
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luketheinvestor
10 Jan 2007
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Cenimar, does the purchase of intel dollars on the currency exchange improve your Delta. If so, are you not being ripped off and is it fair that players may buy in. Of course, I know the purpose of the prize is to encourage participation and trading in both contracts and the Currency Exchange, but does it not disadvantage people who can't buy $I. I'm not complaining because I lost in 3rd, but for the purposes of the next Delta...
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Cenimar
11 Jan 2007
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Yes, the purchase of I$ does affect your Delta value. However, most of the US$ used to purchase those I$ goes to other traders (who sell on the Currency Exchange). So we hope you will view it as another opportunity for the likes of yourself to earn US$.
I can also say that the number of winners in the Delta Contests (so far) who purchased I$ on the Currency Exchange does not exceed the number of winners with no I$ purchases! Also, most new users who purchase I$ do not end up as winners in the Delta Contest. I hope this convinces you that new traders do not need to purchase I$ to be a winner on the Delta Contest.
We will readily admit that we (Cenimar) hope that Delta Contest does encourage trading both on the Prediction Market and on the Currency Exchange.
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The Arbitrageur
11 Jan 2007
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Cenimar,
My reference value for the next Delta contest does not reflect the state of my account. I'm starting below $250, but it says $250 (this should not be the case according to the rules).
PS: I agree with luketheinvestor (10 Jan 2007) - I$ purchases and sales should be excluded from calculations for this contest
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Cenimar
11 Jan 2007
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I$250 is the minimum delta start point. Otherwise traders could dump their shares for a zero start point, then earn some I$ with 'Link Up' and get an infinte Delta. If your actual start point is less than I$250 we round it up to I$250.
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The Arbitrageur
11 Jan 2007
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Sounds like the right thing to do. Perhaps you should update the formula to account for this. Something like stating that the base value is the maximunm of $250 and the value at the end of the previous contest.
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FeastOrFamine46
9 Mar 2007
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And WOW! The Delta Leaders page changes drastically as the contest draws to a close. Bush's approval rating changed a lot...
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rr112
11 Mar 2007
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The Feb 10-March 10 delta contest was won with a delta of 1.66. let me get this straight... 10^1.66 = 45. so that means that final/inital = 45???!! The person who won multiplied their account by a factor of 45? so if he/she started with say $500, the account is now worth $22500?? how is this possible?
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Cenimar
11 Mar 2007
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Most traders (with a chance of winning the Delta Contest) start with $250. So, with your delta figure, they would require a final account balance of about $11,000.
It's not uncommon for traders to earn significantly more than $10,000 in the two month contest cycle. These traders are more likely to be active traders (Market Makers) than simply buy and hold investors.
Some (but not all) Delta Contest Winners also increased their account balance by purchasing I$ on the Currency Exchange.
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J1029
11 Mar 2007
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I think that the currency Exchange should no be allowed within 24hours of the end of a contest. late the night before contest end they bought their way a head of me. There is no way someone with only $14 worth of stock jumped that quickly with out money(less money than the prize is worth). Is there a way to change Cenimars rules to be more fair?
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FeastOrFamine46
11 Mar 2007
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Cenimar stated earlier that there would be no limits set on the Currency Exchange in regard to the Delta Contest. For better or for worse, the recent Delta Contest resulted in a spike of trading, though it meant one of the top three Delta traders would end up with no prize money in the latest contest. -_-
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Cenimar
11 Mar 2007
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Although there is no limit to how much Currency Exchange I$ can go towards the Contest, Contest results pages do say that part of the temporary 'strict trading rules' is that we can temporarily close the Currency Exchange at any time within (or about) the last 24hrs of the contest. We did not take that action this contest, but we probably will next contest. We will not disclose the exact closing schedule or we would simply move the bidding war from midnight to earlier in the day.
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Linda
22 Mar 2007
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How do I sign out of here
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Cenimar
22 Mar 2007
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To log out of Cenimar: select 'My Account' from the main menu then select 'Logout'.
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AgeNt ShorTy
29 Mar 2007
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i need help
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agent Smurfpoo
3 May 2007
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Do you get anything at all for being in the top 100? lol
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FeastOrFamine46
5 May 2007
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If you're in the top 2%, you get fame and fortune! If you're not... you get fame!
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agent 40097
5 May 2007
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True P
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agent 58520
21 May 2007
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Was I entered in both contest when I signed up. If I was I am sorry for re-entering them. Thank you.
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agent 62212
12 Jun 2007
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Someone needs to explain this to me lol
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SykEzz
17 Jun 2007
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If i started with $250 while midway through the contest, i dont think it is fair to hold me to the standard others are held to when they started a month before me. I have an increase delta from .0 -> to .44, but some of others began a month before me. Then once the next delta contest begins, it will be considerably harder for me to win the next one.
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Deymond
17 Jun 2007
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Someone correct me if I am wrong, but I believe that if you sell off all but I$250 of your portfolio through the currency exchange on July 10, that would bring your Delta reference value back to I$250.
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Cenimar
18 Jun 2007
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Another option is simply not to trade for the next month. That way you will still start the next two month cycle with I$250.
Also don't forget that the Delta Contest is just a 'warm up' for our Main Contest.
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agent 63406
2 Jul 2007
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If i trade in a prediction that expires on jul. 11th and the next contest begins that day, then how does that effect me? I read through the rules, but couldn't find any info on it.
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Deymond
2 Jul 2007
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Your Delta value is based on how much your I$ + portfolio value has increased since the beginning of the contest. If you have your sights set on the Delta contest ending September 10th, the only issue affecting you is your total account value on July 10th. It does not matter which contracts you made or lost I$ in.
FYI, there are no regular games scheduled from July 9th until July 12th, so it's very possible that all of these will be settled before the Delta contest ends (and a new one begins).
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OSARO
4 Jul 2007
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You know what! i just sold my intel dolars for cash, and the most funny thing is just it just little amount of money that enter my account, now i dont have any money in my intel account balance.So if i cannot trade now cos there's no money in my intel account, before i normally received bonuses in my account for some weeks i have not received any. what will i do.
Osaro
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Cenimar
4 Jul 2007
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If you don't trade you don't get a weekly allowance. Your options appear to be: try to get a linkup or referral bonus by referring friends to Cenimar. Or, buy some I$ back on the Currency Exchange!
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agent 69657
10 Aug 2007
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So, is this basically like the stock market in a way?
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Cenimar
11 Aug 2007
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Yes, Cenimar is a stock market. However the stock provides a share of a prediction rather than a share of a company.
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Cesar
18 Nov 2007
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Hey, how do you define inappropriate trading behavior? - just wondering...
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Agent 08
22 Nov 2007
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hi i'm new to this and i'm wondering if someone can help me out if i'm trading right??
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Max Cap
2 Dec 2007
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Cenimar,
How many active traders use this sight, when did it start, and how fast is it growing? I'm just curious, and I'm sure it would help many understand their rank in the contests.
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Max Cap
9 Jan 2008
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Hey Cenimar. Over a month and no reply? What's up with that? If it's a contest, don't you need to state the odds? It's certainly not a scholarship.
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Cenimar
9 Jan 2008
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You can see how long Cenimar has been running by looking at closed contracts. All old contracts are still visible.
You can estimate how many traders have registered on Cenimar by looking at the automatically generated user names - they started at 10,000.
Number of active traders is a tricky question. I don't have numbers on that.
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Max Cap
10 Jan 2008
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Ok, from that info I'll guess close to 70,000 traders signed up since January 2004. That's a huge number. Not nearly that many are still active I'm sure. Unfortunately those details don't help much with figuring the odds.The number of weekly allowances should be a pretty good indicator of active traders, if that info is available.
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Max Cap
10 Jan 2008
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Its too bad more details are not forthcoming. It would also be interesting to start a dialog with other long term traders about their observations. I had an idea to examine this site for the purpose of studying market dynamics and valuations in my investment class, and to see how closely it matches true financial markets.It would also be relevant to infer the role psychological factors may play on valuations here since the investments tend to elicit a much more emotional response than most real securities would. Without knowledge of even a sample size its tough to present this idea for further consideration, however.
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RH254
4 Dec 2007
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Agent 08 What whould you like to know?
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Alpha
19 Dec 2007
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The Delta contest smelly fishy to me lately. A few contestants rocketed up the ladder from nowhere in the last two days while no big contracts were settled. Four thousand intel dollars were also traded on Dec 19 (enough to boost anyone to the top). Anyone else think something suspicious is going on?
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Cenimar
19 Dec 2007
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The Currency Exchange is part of both the Delta Contest and our Main Contest. It's up to you to decide whether to buy or sell on the Currency Exchange. Some traders earn more US$ by selling I$ on the Currency Exchange. Others try to win the Contests. (Many leading traders do both.)
In most cases it would be difficult for any trader to have a net US$ gain simply by buying I$ on the Currency Exchange and winning a Contest.
Also: don't forget that most money exchanged on the Currency Exchange goes to other traders - not to Cenimar!
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Oligopoly (soon it will be only me)
19 Dec 2007
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what are the chances of you adding nascar to the list? i have a suguestion, could you do individual games with football and nascar if you plan on adding that?
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Alpha
19 Dec 2007
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I think that new traders should be prevented from buying too much intel dollars because it unfairly affects those that earned their money. Beside, buying $I 4000 would cost about 20 dollars which is still less than what the Delta contest is worth. Meaning that a trader can have a positive net US$ gain from buying I$.
The point of the Delta contest is to see how much a trader can make from the starting money not how much he can buy with real cash. Traders have a limit to how much I$ they can buy proportionate to their value.
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Max Cap
9 Jan 2008
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I agree completely. How about a real contest with no $I sales and no Power Tools? Lets make it a level playing field - it's time separate the men from the boys! Whoever is up for this, make that pledge in your profile so the real players will know it's on. Let's start on Jan 11th for the next Delta contest.
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Cenimar
9 Jan 2008
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Sorry, no change in contest rules is planned.
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Max Cap
10 Jan 2008
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I understand there won't be a change in the official rules. I was just wondering if enough others feel as I do and have the desire to start an informal contest within a contest by pledging to play fair, and that they have not, and will not, purchase $I or use power tools to gain what several have commented may be an unfair advantage. How are we to know if sound investment strategies,luck, or just deep pockets, lead to success in this game? An indication in the profile, or perhaps a symbol appearing next to the names in the contest rankings, would work. Any takers?
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Alpha
20 Feb 2008
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I agree with you Max Cap but buying in is only effective in the delta contest. It also turns out that those that buy in usually lose their $I and the Delta contest.
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agent 90040
2 Jul 2008
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Does anyone actually help Figure out exactly how this work?
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agent 91555
19 Jul 2008
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im not sure what im doing but im interested in finding out more
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dosao
21 Aug 2008
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scared of the olympics stock.lol
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