What's Going On! is an online forum for our users.
Cenimar staff may also use this forum to answer questions or pass information on to our users.
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Forum category:
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Contest
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Mozzy
26 May 2006
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I also would like to know what will happen if Deymond decides to keep his I$s instead of converting them to cash. Will his I$s count toward the conversion process if he keeps them? Because if he keeps his I$s and the other people attempt to cash them in at the conversion rate set by the top three you will probably be giving about $150 out considering his huge lead.
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Deymond
26 May 2006
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As I understand it, if the top 3 traders do not cash in the full $400 worth of I$, the next trader(s) in line will be given an opportunity to cash in some of their I$ at the exchange rate determined by the top 3 portfolios.
Cenimar, please clarify if I am mistaken.
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Cenimar
26 May 2006
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We will do whatever is necessary to make sure we give away US$400. If we don't get enough takers in the top 5 or 10 then we'll increase the effective exchange rate until we do. We hope that most leaders will be happy to exchange a good portion of their I$.
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The Wind Adept
29 May 2006
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Mozzy does have a legitimate point. If the top 3 traders keep all of their I$ earnings, there is nearly a I$3,000.00 gap between 3rd (myself) and 4th (Winner Take All). At the rate as of tonight, each I$ would be worth about 1.273 cents.
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Cenimar
30 May 2006
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We don't want to be giving out a hundred $4 awards. We'd prefer to see the minimum award at about $50. So, we may need to increase the effective contest exchange rate based on the response from the leaders.
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The Wind Adept
12 Jun 2006
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Gildor, did you exchange your I$ already? And if you did, (for Cenimar), does the amount of the award claimed appear on the results page immediately after the exchange, or do we have to wait until the end of the Exchange period?
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Cenimar
13 Jun 2006
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The award claimed shows up on the results page immediately. The award will also show up on the home page in the 'Total Earnings Leaders' table (assuming that the award moves the trader into the top three spot). The home page earnings table combines Award earnings and Exchange earnings to give the best picture of who is raking in the dough.
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Gildor Inglorion
14 Jun 2006
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No, I haven't exchanged yet. I'm planning on waiting until probably the 19th or 20th to finish selling off shares.
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agent 27598
2 Aug 2006
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Cenimar,
It appears that this scholarship money is available to all age groups. However, it wouldn't be fair for all the younger traders because of their lack of experience? It could be more fair if the age groups are divided. By the way, does an earlier entrants have a bigger advantage than the later ones? or does it matter?
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Cenimar
3 Aug 2006
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Given our limited resources, we chose not to split the award based on age.
Our contest runs continuously. The longer you participate the better opportunity you have to lead. However, you will find that traders often get into the leadership positions by participating for one complete contest cycle (two months). If you start trading a few days before one deadline you probably need to be thinking in terms of leading the next contest cycle - two months later. Any profits you earn this cycle are carried over into the next cycle.
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The Wind Adept
7 Aug 2006
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Cenimar, what are the restrictions this time for the end of the Contest? Are they the same, or have you tweaked them a little?
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Cenimar
7 Aug 2006
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As we note on our Contesnt Results page, we do expect to impose some special trading limits before the contest deadline. The limits will be restored to normal shortly afther the contest deadline passes. The limits can vary with our concern for suspicious activity. However, it is likely that they will be similar to those used before the last contest.
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Huckler
10 Aug 2006
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I received this message ERROR: Temporary trading limits are in effect: all traders are limited to trading no more than 200 shares per 2 hours of trading. (You may continue trade shares in other Options or other Contracts.)
I know temporary trading limits were imposed for the contest. But if I have traded my maximum amount of shares per 2 hours, I am not allowed to trade shares in other Options or other Contracts right? I haven't been able to trade in other options or contracts, so is the trading limit 200 shares in one contract per 2 hours or 200 shares for Cenimar per 2 hours?
Also, is it possible for you to post exactly when the limits will be made effective for the next contest and what those limits will be? Thanks.
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Cenimar
10 Aug 2006
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The limit is per-option. So you should not be limited in trading other Options or other Contracts. If that is not the case, let me know. (Though there won't be enough time to make any changes since there is only one hour left on this Contest.)
Sorry - we don't post the limits for the brief time they are in force. On the assumtion that posting them in advance would make it easier for traders to get around the limits. (OK, we are a little paranoid. But this is just our second contest.)
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Bigplans47
11 Aug 2006
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After this contest ends on Midnight Aug 10, how long will the top traders have to convert Intel dollars to USD?
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Cenimar
11 Aug 2006
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The top 3 leaders have 5 full days (till sometime after midnight Aug 15) to exchange their I$ for award cash before the award is offered to the next two (or more) traders. At that point it's 'first come first served' until the $400 is gone. (All 5 or more leaders will be able to participate.)
After the 5 day period the effective exchange rate will probably be ajusted to make the award more attractive for exchange. But anyone who exchanges early will have their exchange adjusted so that there is no disadvantage to exchanging early.
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agent 27123
12 Aug 2006
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I wanted to be clear on the issue of withdrawing US dollars. When/how do traders have the opportunity to withdraw I$ for real cash? Is it only through the contest?
Thanks.
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Huckler
12 Aug 2006
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You can exchange I$ for real cash through the contest and the Currency Exchange.
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Cenimar
15 Aug 2006
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That's right. If you win the Contest you can withdraw your (US$) cash as soon as you swap your I$ for contest award money. If you use the Currency Exchange and exchange I$ for US$ then you can withdraw those US$ immediately.
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Oregongirl
28 Aug 2006
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I am just having a blast doing this!! but I am a returning student so will not be in need of scholorships after Jan. Can I continue to play and eventually pull actual cash out? ( at the rate near $700=$5 or whatever it is at the moment)
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Deymond
28 Aug 2006
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Yes. All winnings from the contest and earnings from the currency exchange can be withdrawn by check or Paypal.
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agent xen
11 Sep 2006
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is it possible for the cash which u want to withdraw reach u at any country.
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Cenimar
11 Sep 2006
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Sure. You can create a PayPal account (see paypal.com) in many countries. Otherwise, select 'airmail' as the delivery method when withdrawing cash and we will send you a US$ check. You should be able to cash that check in most countries at your local bank (for a small fee to your bank).
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voltlord
17 Sep 2006
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No one ever answered me previous question, so I am still confused about this contract thing, like what if your betting on a NFL team, what happens at the end of the contract, if you have the team with the best record in the division make you profit, and if you didn't pick that team you lose your shares??
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Deymond
17 Sep 2006
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When the contract is settled, all the shares of that contract are removed. Traders received I$10 for each winning option that they hold, and nothing for the losing options.
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voltlord
17 Sep 2006
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Thank You Deymond, with this new knowledge maybe I can win the next contest, already up to I$350 lmfao
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agent 34255
27 Sep 2006
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yes how do i start to make my $250 dollars grow?
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Cenimar
28 Sep 2006
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Buy and sell stock on the Prediction Market. Buy Options that you think will increase in price over time. Better still - sign up as a Market Maker, then you can buy low cost Bundles and sell them to other traders.
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BIGC4UNC
29 Sep 2006
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So Deymond gets a prize every contest & then the #s 2,3,4 get a chance at another one? LOL
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Deymond
29 Sep 2006
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You give the impression that other traders don't have a chance. There are plenty of traders who have demonstrated the capability of winning the contest, and I'm sure that soon one of them will maintain that level of profitability long enough to win the contest.
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Razmig
29 Sep 2006
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Don't joke like that Deymond.
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The Wind Adept
29 Sep 2006
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Yea man, that's not cool...Anyway, good luck to all coming into the final stretch.
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Military Ace
30 Sep 2006
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Checkout the leaders total balance and then checkout the portfolio balance for those leaders. Deymond may not be the one who gets the biggest US$ prize for this contest! Remember that the leaders need I$ cash to actually redeem award money!
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The Wind Adept
4 Oct 2006
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Cenimar, could you announce a time that the exchanging for the leaders will be open to 4th and 5th place? (If necessary...)
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Cenimar
4 Oct 2006
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As per the last Contest, the top 3 leaders have 5 full days to claim their awards. After that point the award will be opened to the next few leaders and/or the effective exchange rate will be lowered - with our goal is to get as much I$ 'off the table' as quickly as possible. Note that, with the Currency Exchange exchange rate close to 100 I$/US$, it's likely that the Contest Exchange Rate will not be lowered to the 60 I$/US$ level seen in the first two Contests.
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The Wind Adept
5 Oct 2006
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Yes, but can you give me an exact time, like 6:00 AM EST, or something on the 6th day that it becomes open to the top 5?
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Cenimar
6 Oct 2006
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No. It's a manual process that can happen anytime after midnight MST on the 15th. The three leaders have five full days to claim their award. After that, we are going to try to get someone else to claim it quickly.
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agent 36701
7 Oct 2006
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it is a good idea to help people precisely student to get money for their studies
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Templar Knight
11 Oct 2006
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Just wondering approximately how much time everybody spends trading per day.
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Razmig
11 Oct 2006
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Depends how much time I have after doing all of the things necessary for my life. Mabye 1 to 2 hours.
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Spare Time Trader
12 Oct 2006
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Cenimar,
Just to confirm, I have until 11:59pm on October 20 to claim my award, right? (the instructions in the claim award page mention 10 days).
Thanks
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Cenimar
12 Oct 2006
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You have (at least) until midnight MST on the evening of Oct 15. After that point you 'may' still be able to claim it if others don't claim it first.
Sorry about the error in the claim page - we've fixed that now. The 5 days described in the contest page and the results page is the limit that counts.
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agent 35314
20 Oct 2006
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how does this work really. i don't have very much I$ alot of people already have a ton, also after reading these it seems like i will need to sell my I$ at the end of the term and wut ever i sell them for thats the amount i get in cash? i am unsure can u clearify this please.
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Cenimar
20 Oct 2006
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Remember that there are two contests. The 'Delta' contest is great for new users since your starting point is reset to your account balance at the start of each two month contest cycle. So users with a high starting balance will find it very, very difficult to win that one. The Delta Contest more suitable for new users. Also - for the Delta Contest you do NOT need to exchange your I$ for US$ - its a simple grant. That way you are left in a great position for doing well on the main contest in the next cycle.
Note: several traders have gone from I$250 to win an award within little more than one contest cycle! It's hard work, but can be done.
Last hint: make sure you maximise your referral bounus - that ads another I$150 to your account for very little effort. (See your 'My Account' page for more details.)
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Templar Knight
24 Oct 2006
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If somebody buys or sells intel using the currency exchange, does that affect their Delta score?
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Cenimar
24 Oct 2006
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Yes it does. Buying I$ on the Currency Exchange improves your position in both our contests.
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voltlord
22 Oct 2006
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I had a question cenimar, on the contracts, if it says that it ends lets say on the 23rd, then does that mean it ends at 12:00 A.M. on that date, or does it end at 11:59 P.M. on that same date??
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Cenimar
23 Oct 2006
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It varies from Contract to Contract. If you dig through the documentation on most Contracts you will find where and when the official data arrives. For commodities, it's often the end of day price for the target day. For a particular Contract, if you can't find the information, then ask on the forum for that Contract.
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agent 39870
22 Nov 2006
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How do I know if I am doing well with my trading?
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Cenimar
22 Nov 2006
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Your 'My Account Summary' page shows your current status. You can compare your numbers with the contest leaders in the 'Contest' menu by selecting 'Leaders' or 'Delta Leaders'.
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voltlord
26 Nov 2006
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Cenimar, I had a couple questions concerning the amount of a certain option that you are allowed to purchase. For one, why as a regular trader you are only allowed to purchase 10% of the option, but when you become a market maker you are then allowed to purchase 18%? Another question about that, is why does it stop at 18% then, why can't you purchase more. One last question on this, is what is the 100 share limit thing? Does it mean you can't purchase over a 100 at one time?
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Cenimar
26 Nov 2006
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The 10% 18% limits are designed to prevent any one trader from owning too many shares of any one option. Since all contracts start with 0 shares of all options, 18% of 0 is 0; so we need to have a 100 share minimum limit to get the ball rolling. I.e. market makers can hold at least 100 shares of any option, but if 18% is greater than 100 then they can hold 18%.
Market makers can hold more than regular traders because they have shown a certain level of skill that suggests that they are less likely to accidentally buy too many shares. Note that any trader can become a market maker, quite easily. So, the higher limit applies to most traders who read the documentation and make the most of it!
Why 18%? It's not a magic number. It was higher originally and we started to lower it gradually. When it got to 18% we probably got sidetracked with other things. We might still lower the 18% further - it's still pretty high.
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Deymond
26 Nov 2006
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I always understood (but disagreed with) the decision to set the limit at 20% (as opposed to 100%, which is a lot), but I never understood why it was lowered to 18%. I never got the impression that any conditions existed that would suggest 20% was too high. I have seen several contracts where trading essentially halted because the 18% limit prevented informed traders from buying shares of likely winning options (despite attractive prices).
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Cenimar
11 Dec 2006
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The Market Maker maximum holding limits per Option have been changed.
Old Rule Maximum: the greater of 100 shares or 18% of all shares.
New Rule Maximum: the greater of 200 shares or 16% of all shares.
We hope that this change will allow easier participation in new contracts.
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Cenimar
17 Dec 2006
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We are trying to figure out if we need to modify our main contest to make it more attractive to our traders. (In your response don't forget that we already have a 'Delta Contest' targeted towards new traders.)
We'd like your feedback:
Do you think that the fact that some traders will start this next two month contract cycle with about I$20,000 in hand will cause some other traders to give up?
If so, do you think we should do anything about it?
If so, what?
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FeastOrFamine46
18 Dec 2006
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This is a growing problem. In each contest, the runners-up have more and more I$, and often they don't have a chance to exchange I$ at all before the USD$400 has already been claimed by traders above them in the rankings.
I have two suggestions, neither of which would work flawlessly in the short-term. The first is to revamp the Currency Exchange so the I$ limit is much higher. This would lead to inflation in the I$ value, maybe as high as 250 I$=1 USD$ or higher. Then, when the next contest is completed, offer the winnings to the top ten traders with some kind of cap limiting how much I$ they can exchange. This would make the value of the I$ also decline from the 150 I$=1 USD$ it ended up at for the Dec. 10 contest to a value close to the new Currency Exchange cap of around 250 I$=1 USD$. With the combined Currency Exchange change (devaluing the I$) and the new Contest change (devaluing the I$), more I$ can be removed from the game during each contest. This probably won't have a big effect on the overall situation, though, and I'm sure devaluing the I$ isn't a popular decision among traders. This leads me to suggestion #2.
Cenimar could start a cap on how much I$ a trader can have at any time, like at I$15,000, for example. If a trader accrues more than than limit, Cenimar forces the trader to trade in I$ for USD$ at an unattractive fixed rate, like 250 I$ for 1 USD$. This would limit all traders to a set I$ amount and cap the total I$ traders could have at the end of a Contest, while still rewarding traders for accruing as many I$ as possible. This suggestion, however, would lead to Cenimar having to pay out more USD$ per two-month period. To prevent that, Cenimar could deduct each USD$ exchanged with excess I$ from the overall USD$400 Contest prize. This is probably also not a popular solution, and it doesn't solve the problem permanently (what would be done if so many traders reach I$15,000 at the end of the Contest that the $400 prize [or what's left of it] can't cover them all?).
I'm not counting this as a suggestion because I don't think it would have much of an impact on the situation, but Cenimar could change the Weekly Allowance of I$40 again. Cenimar could set up some sort of system where each trader was granted I$ based on a formula, like this:
(1000-(Account balance))/25=I$ Allowance, capped at .5 times the value of trades made over the past week.
With that, traders would be given I$ more at the beginning and gradually less and less until they reached the threshold of I$1000, where the gift I$ allowance would stop for them. This would reduce the amount of I$ in the marketplace and prevent further inflation of the I$ currency. I think this suggestion is the better than the others, and some sort of Weekly Allowance reform should be made regardless of the overall Contest and the inflation surrounding it.
I apologize for the length of this forum entry, but I think this issue is one that needs reform now.
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Razmig
18 Dec 2006
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I personally don't have a problem with the devaluing of I$. Sure, the contest rate and currency rate will have to be increased, but, the average trader will have more money and will be able to have more than 5 or 10 shares of an option. There will be more shares being bought and sold and the market would be much more active. It might be a bit harder on new traders who see all of those big numbers on the leaderboard but those new traders always have a great shot of doing well in the delta contest.
I do agree however, that Cenimar has to stop giving out so much allowance money to all of it's active traders. My earlier suggestion, which was that traders worth over a certian amount who have enough money free should not be given an allowance could fix that. I certianly don't need it and I can see that a lot of other traders don't either. Vlad's allowance idea isn't bad either except that traders who aren't too good at this and don't make money won't recieve an allowance because they made no money. That can be fixed by changing the cap of the allowance recieved from the amount of money made to the amount of money spent or recieved (from buying and selling).
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006
20 Dec 2006
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I don't think a change to the main contest is needed. I think a re-working of the contracts might increase trading, since the volume on most contracts ending in more than one week have less than 100 shares traded in a day. How this could be done? I'm not sure.
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agent 26097
2 Jan 2007
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I think the fact is that many of the new traders begin with little understanding of the concept of the prediction market. Many traders sign up thinking that they will be trading stocks in an imaginary portfolio.
It would be interesting to start a pretend stock market on cenimar also, where traders could buy and sell real stocks with pretend money. Of course this would not have anything to do with the actual prediction market, but it would be something interesting to participate in.
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Spare Time Trader
27 Dec 2006
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The suggestions to reduce or eliminate the allowance to traders with portfolios above a certain amount are GREAT. It would help make the I$ more attractive. That really requires this type of 'fiscal reform' (this has been suggested here before). We know that a policy of printing money (giving the allowances to everyone) and depreciating the currency will undermine the credibility of the Intel$ and kill the still incipient currency exchange market in little time. So I don't think Cenimar should follow the part of the suggestions related to artificially depreciating the currency. Moreover, there doesn't seem to be a lot of pressure on the Intel $ in the FX market.
A suggestion regarding the contests will follow.
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Spare Time Trader
27 Dec 2006
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Regarding the contests: Cenimar would like to reduce the incentives for people to hold on to their large I$ holdings without having to give away more money in the contests. One thing that would help is to stop offering a better exchange rate in the award even after people have exchanged part of their I$ at a worse exchange rate. Winners with large I$ holdings have been holding on to their I$ because they know Cenimar will end up lowering the exchange rate and allowing them to benefit as well (I have benefited from this already). Instead, the opportunity to exchange should be extended to more runner-ups if the winners don't exchange, and if needed the more favorable exchange rate should only be offered to the people who exchange from then on (i.e., people who ranked higher might end up having to exchange at a worse rate).
Another path is to take measures that make holding 'too many' Intel$ unattractive. One way to do that is to base the contests on a combination of percentage gains (as in the Delta contest) and total portfolio value. Or to shift award money to contests based on percentage gains. This is because it is much harder to have large percentage gains with a alarge portfolio.
OBS: I reiterate the suggestion that I$ exchanges be excluded from the calculation of such percentage gains.
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Cenimar
28 Dec 2006
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If you look at the history of the main contest exchange rates I think you'll see that we are already heading in this direction. The exchange rate in the last main contest was 150 I$/US$ - higher than most Currency Exchange transactions. It was our plan to offer this rate to more traders if the leaders did not accept it.
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agent Langmartey
28 Dec 2006
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If i want to change my I$ for US$, will the fee be taken out of my pay or i have to pay it by my own money? please, could you me more info about the pay pal. I want to have more knowledge about pay pal.
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Cenimar
28 Dec 2006
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If you exchange I$1000 at 100 I$/US$ then the proceeds would be US$10. If our exchange fee is 15% then you would keep US$8.50. We would hold US$1.50 from the exchange transaction as our fee.
You can find out more about PayPal at paypal.com.
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Spare Time Trader
28 Dec 2006
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Cenimar,
That's true, but my point is that you offer the revised (lower) exchange rate even to the I$ amounts that had been 'exchanged' at the initial rate. This is my criticism. People who accepted the initial exchange rate should not be granted the right to get the adjusted rate. The new rate should be offered only to new exchanges, and to more runner-ups. That would put pressure on the winners with lots of I$ to accept the initial (worse) exchange rate (since they know they won't get the chance to trade at a better rate even if eventually that rate is offered to others), and this should allow you to withdraw more I$ from the market at each exchange. The other suggestions involve using more award money in the 'percentage gain' based contest, but I forgot to mention that they requires that the I$ be exchanged ! (i.e. *not* as in the current Delta contest).
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Cenimar
31 Dec 2006
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Often it appears to be that leaders don't have any cash to exchange. Their balances are tied up in stock.
What if we offered to buy back bundles (at I$10.00 per bundle). If we implement this it would be available to all Market Makers at all times - not just contest leaders. (You would need to hold complete bundles before you could sell them back. Partial bundles would not be acepted.)
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FeastOrFamine46
31 Dec 2006
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Good idea, Cenimar. Good idea.
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Tiger
1 Jan 2007
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One issue with the bundle buy backs though is that because you would need an entire bundle, people might have to buy shares that no longer have the possibility of being correct. This might be an issue becuase it would give people an increased incentive to buy incorrect options, which is what you are attempting to stop. However, if you were going to eliminate people's ability to buy incorrect options, would you factor that into the bundle buy back system and pay them I$10 for a bundle of only the correct options?
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FeastOrFamine46
1 Jan 2007
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That's an interesting point, but with the increased liquidity that would result with a bundle-buyback program, I think unlikely options would remain very low-priced.
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Cenimar
1 Jan 2007
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Tiger, you are correct: if we restrict purchase of impossible options then we would have to ignore those options as far as bundle buy back is concerned.
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Cenimar
31 Dec 2006
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What would traders think if, after the initial (5 day) cash back period for leaders, we sold the remainder of the Contest US$ Cash on the Currency Exchange?
That would give a wider range of traders a chance at some cash?
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Deymond
31 Dec 2006
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I think that is an excellent idea. I also agree with the idea of allowing bundle buy-backs.
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Templar Knight
31 Dec 2006
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I like the bundle buy-back idea.
Why not offer the remaining cash to the rest of the leaderboard, like the top 10, and then top 15, etc until the contest cash is gone? If not, I do like selling the rest on the currency exchange.
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The Wind Adept
1 Jan 2007
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Yes, however, I think that the time that the extra winnings goes on the market needs to be announced. Also, would the money be available at the award exchange rate, or the highest currency exchange rate?
As for the bundle-buyback; I would say no. Just my opinion; I don't have a real concrete reason.
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Cenimar
1 Jan 2007
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Templar Knight,
We are torn between offering the remainder on the Currency Exchange or to the next few leaders (as we do now). We'd like to encourage traders to use the Currency Exchange, but we want to remain fair. We have not yet made a decision on what was to go.
Wind Adept,
The money would initially be available at the award exchange rate. We would expect to lower that rate if it does not sell.
We need to think longer about timing for the release/rate changes. We are not certain if a fixed schedule or random changes would be preferable.
We have always been concerned that a buy back would result in lower market caps and less trading. However we'll give it a try and see how it goes.
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Cenimar
1 Jan 2007
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Bundle buy back is now implemented. You must first open the 'Purchase Bundle' form and you'll see a new link called 'Sell Bundles'.
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006
1 Jan 2007
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Would this be one step closer towards allowing short sells?
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Cenimar
2 Jan 2007
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006,
not really. Bundle buy back is a fairly simple process. We anticipate that it will not be used very often - but we have been surprised before. We have no plans to implement short sales in the near future.
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agent 44648
12 Jan 2007
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to check if you are doing well ,check your portofolio and your itel dollars
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Flying Eagle
13 Jan 2007
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I still don't fully understand how the contest works.
In your example it's stated supposingly 3 contestants starts with the same amount of intel money : $ 250.00
But right after each deadline, everybody starts withe different amount of intel money, how you calculate/ decide the next winner?
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Cenimar
13 Jan 2007
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The Delta Contest calculates the maximum GAIN during the contest. So this is a great contest for new traders. However, for the Main Contest, the winners are simply the traders with the biggest I$ balance at the end of the two month cycle. So traders who just lost one Main Contest are presumably in the best position to win the next Main Contest (since the last winners will have traded in their I$ for award money).
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Helène777
25 Feb 2007
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How can I effectively Get the money if I win?
I mean of course, caunting the exchange rate, etc.
-is it on my banking account of any country bank? Only US bank? Italian BancaIntesa is good?
Thank you.
Helene.
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Deymond
25 Feb 2007
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The simplest and most efficient method would probably be Paypal, which I believe will allow you to withdraw funds to an Italian bank.
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luketheinvestor
2 Mar 2007
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Cenimar, even after I have sold all of my shares of a certain contract, the contract and all its options remain listed on My Stock Portfolio. Can you fix this problem?
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Cenimar
2 Mar 2007
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The options should disappear when the contract is closed or if you buy and sell more options in this contract.
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luketheinvestor
11 Mar 2007
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Cenimar, how about a contract on the Champions League. It's the biggest soccer tournament in Europe. The teams in the quarterfinals this year are AC Milan, Bayern Munich, PSV Eindhoven, Liverpool, Manchester United, AS Roma, Chelsea, and Valencia. Here is the official site if you opt to do it http://www.uefa.com/competitions/ucl/.
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FeastOrFamine46
15 Mar 2007
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I don't know if anyone has mentioned it yet, but we definitely need an NCAA college basketball contract. Since there are still way too many teams left in the tournament, we could have 4 options: East, South, Midwest, and West. Those 4 options could be split around the time of the Elite Eight, or just left intact all the way through the tournament.
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Tiger
16 Mar 2007
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If it is possible, I would advocate waiting until the 2nd round games are completed this weekend, and then open a contract at the beginning of next week with the teams left in the Sweet 16. This would give time for people to buy options before the games on Thursday next week.
If it is not possible to have so many options, then I guess go with VladimirIvanov's idea of waiting to split until the Elite Eight. The issue with that is the Elite Eight field is not set until Friday night, and then the Elite Eight games start playing Saturday afternoon, so there would be a very small window for traders to buy shares before games begin.
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Cenimar
16 Mar 2007
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Would it be practical to set up a contract with a list of the 'probable' final 8 (with an additional 'other' option)? We'd then split 'other' after the final 8 are known.
If so, someone needs to give me the list of those 'probable' 8.
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Deymond
16 Mar 2007
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I think the easiest thing to do would be to use the top 8 seeds remaining after the games on March 18th.
The 1 seeds are Florida, Kansas, Ohio State, and UNC. The two seeds are Wisconsin, Georgetown, UCLA, and Memphis. If none of them lose, those could be our 8 teams. If any of them lose, we could add the highest ranking remaining 3rd seed (as ranked by the last AP poll), and then 4th seed if necessary.
Thoughts?
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Tiger
16 Mar 2007
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I guess that would be practical to use the 'probable' 8. Is it an issue of starting it up ASAP, or would it be after the games this weekend anyways? Are you not able to do all 16? The issue is, there will be a very small window to break the 'Other' into the remaining seeds. The Sweet 16 games are played Thursday and Friday 3/22 and 3/23, and then Elite 8 games are played on Saturday and Sunday 3/24 and 3/25. Therefore, there would be at most 16 hours to trade the split 'Other' options, before the games start. And that is if you split it immediately after the last Sweet 16 game is played...
Not that this is definitely a better option than Deymond's, but instead of picking the next highest ranking 3rd seed, I would say take the top 2 seeds from each region. So, if Ohio State lost, add in Texas A&M to give the South region 2 teams, and if Ohio State AND Memphis lost, it would be Texas A&M and Virginia. That would make it so that the available options would probably be much more likely to mirror the 8 teams in the Elite 8, because ultimately there will be 2 teams from each region.
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Tiger
16 Mar 2007
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To add on to my previous comment:
If only the 1 seed lost and the 2 seed still remained, then you could put in the 4 seed, instead of the 3 seed, because the 4 seed would have the easier path to the Elite 8. However, the 4 seed probably wouldn't be as likely to actually win as the 3 seed.
So really, it depends whether you are looking for who is more likely to win the whole thing, or who is most likely to be in the Elite 8. If it is which teams are most likely to compose the Elite 8, then take the highest remaining seed left on each path to an Elite 8 berth, for example, as I outlined above with the 2 and 4 seeds. If you want the options to reflect percentage chance of winning, probably the simplest way is Deymond's idea on taking the highest 3 seed in the last AP poll, although I know arguments can be made that certain teams are more likely to win, regardless of the seedings.
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Cenimar
17 Mar 2007
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Short notice: but we will release a NCAAB Contract tomorrow Noon EST. It will start with the top 8 plus an Other option.
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agent 51838
16 Mar 2007
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hey can someone assist me on how this thing works. Firstly, I am located in the Pacific. How would I withdraw my $ if I want to?...
anyone out there, please assist.
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Cenimar
17 Mar 2007
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Simplest method is normally PayPal (see paypal.com). It supports payments to something like 150 countries. Otherwise we can send a US$ check via airmail.
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luketheinvestor
21 Mar 2007
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So i'm assuming nobody likes soccer because everyone ignored the idea of a Champions League. Although, the NCAA contract is also interesting and more pressing as it's happening now. But now that the issue of the contract is resolved can I rally some popular support for this soccer contract? Anyone?
Btw, there is still time, the next Champions League games are in early April.
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Tiger
21 Mar 2007
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I personally don't really follow soccer, not that it is a bad sport or anything, just I am more of a MLB/NFL/NBA guy... IMHO, knowing the fact that a majority of the investors on Cenimar are based in the US, I think that a Champions League contract most likely would not have very much volume. I think that the NHL contracts are currently proving that the NBA is more popular. In the future, I would vote to eliminate season hockey contracts, but I definitely like the playoff ones... I think right now having 34 contracts is a little much, but maybe that's just me. Adding soccer contracts would only make the liquidity issue worse.
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Cenimar
22 Mar 2007
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I agree that there are probably too many contracts right now and that we could probably have done without the NHL contracts. The Champions League is nice that it lasts a while and now only has eight options. However, with no messages of support from other traders it's not clear how much activity the contract would have.
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agent 53072
30 Mar 2007
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this is very confusing...
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agent 53275
30 Mar 2007
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Can I post all of this information on my website? Or, am I supposed to add a link instead?
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agent 53910
4 Apr 2007
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I am seeking new job & like to continue my education
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agent 55285
8 Apr 2007
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how do we sign up for the contest?
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Cenimar
10 Apr 2007
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If you can post an entry in our forum then you are already signed up! Just start trading on the Prediction Market using your signup bonus (I$250) to get you started.
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agent 55759
12 Apr 2007
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When I withdraw my money, how long will it take for me to recieve it?
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Cenimar
13 Apr 2007
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If you request a cash withdrawal via PayPal we normally process it within a day and you'd have the money in your PayPal account immediately at that point.
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agent 55851
13 Apr 2007
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Respected sir,
i would like to know when is your next contest date will be held. Becuse i am very sorry that i heard this contest very later . and even the last was also get over. so i want to know the next date of the contest. because i am very egar to participate on this contest.
If you kindly send the datails,i will be very thankful to you.
Thankyou
Yours faithfully
Munmundey banerjee
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BIGC4UNC
16 Apr 2007
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Geez why are trades taking so long right now?
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Deymond
18 Apr 2007
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At the close of another successful contest, I'd like to offer congratulations to Tiger, the first trader to finish in 2nd place more than once (let alone consecutively).
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Tiger
18 Apr 2007
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Hahaha... Deymond, Deymond, Deymond... I do sincerely appreciate that, coming from the god of Cenimar himself, who has come in FIRST place, what seems like 100 times in a row... So you deserve much more congratulations than I. Maybe next contest someone else will come in first, considering you are dropping down the leaderboard like a rock. But I won't count on it, as you seem to have figured this thing out completely, and you'll probably be back up to 50,000 by next week. I'll do my best though.
I'm also happy to be in 2nd place overall in the hall of fame by .01 ;-)
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Cenimar
20 Apr 2007
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Looks like Deymond is giving everyone else a great chance at winning the next Contest. He has given up most of his portfolio! Thanks Deymond!
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FeastOrFamine46
20 Apr 2007
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If there was a contract predicting the next contest winner, I would buy Deymond shares at any price below I$5. :) (I'd pay up to I$4 for Tiger shares too. haha)
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Agent delta
21 Apr 2007
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Now theirs a contract people would bet on
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tammyw
8 May 2007
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how are you entered to win a scholarship
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Cenimar
9 May 2007
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If you can post a message then you are already registered with Cenimar and have a play money balance of I$250. Use that money to trade on the Prediction Market. The best trader wins the award.
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agent 57832
16 May 2007
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It says that there will be a fee if we do not make our balance 0$ so how do I make my balance 0$?
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Cenimar
16 May 2007
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You are probably talking about our Abandoned Account Fee. All that means is that, if you leave real US$ in your Cenimar account and don't use your account for more than two months then we will charge a small monthly fee.
You never give us a credit card number: so, if you don't deposit any real money with us then we have no way to charge you any fees!
When you abandon an account with no US$ but some I$, we will eventually close the account and your assets will simply disappear. No fees are involved in this process.
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agent 58520
21 May 2007
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I found this page and I think it will help me understand the market a little more. Thank you.
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agent 58694
23 May 2007
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I am New user I am confuse I don't know much how to use this can somebody help.
Thanks!
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Raymond
1 Jun 2007
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Deymond, do you think you can help out a brother? I'm totally new to this world of your but I think I could use some help!
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agent 60822
3 Jun 2007
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What is this website about? I do not know all I wanted to do is apply for a scholarship so i can afford college. However I have gotten misleaded and went on this site.
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agent 60932
3 Jun 2007
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I just need money!!!!!
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agent 61413
4 Jun 2007
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I want to study of master of human rights or economics
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agent 52627
5 Jun 2007
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I predict that the US will start a new weapons organization and stop the war with Iraq!
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agent 52627
5 Jun 2007
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Who noticed that America is trying to build Hydrogen powered cars? If this happens, people would run cars on Poland Spring!
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agent 45876
6 Jun 2007
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NICE :)
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agent 61985
7 Jun 2007
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i'm ivorian so icome from cote d'ivoire is it possible for me to submit?
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agent 62140
8 Jun 2007
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Hi, I'm new user. idon't know much about this website.So,i need some help. Thanks.
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agent 58916
11 Jun 2007
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doesnt it break the spirit of this to deposit money? you can just buy the scholarship... $100 guarantees you $150 in scholarship? and then the second award that is offered for the highest percent increase? can you just buy that too? is this for scholarship or so this website can make money?
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Deymond
11 Jun 2007
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I'm not sure where you come up with your idea that $100 deposit equals $150 in contest winnings. It's not profitable to 'buy' the contest (since people set their prices in the currency exchange based on the expected exchange rate from the contest).
And yes, the operators of the website, like all productive people in the world, are trying to make money.
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Cenimar
12 Jun 2007
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It's true that a $100 deposit does not guarantee any prize. The best way to win a prize is to trade aggressively.
And don't forget that most money deposited with Cenimar is actually exchanged with other traders. Cenimar keeps only a small portion.
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agent 62876
22 Jun 2007
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my sister and I both have accounts. we manage them from the same computer and we are prohibited from trading with each other. are we both allowed to win?
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Cenimar
22 Jun 2007
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It sounds like you are already aware that orders that result in trades between the accounts are automatically canceled. Other than that, there are no special restrictions that would prevent both of you winning.
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agent 62918
23 Jun 2007
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i want to take part in this contest now and hope to win because am ready
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Agent 23225
26 Jun 2007
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how do you enter
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Cenimar
26 Jun 2007
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Since you can post forum entries it shows that you have already registered. So you are already entered in the contests. Now all you need to do is to participate in the Prediction Market.
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Ifeanyi
3 Jul 2007
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How do i earn money on this site.
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agent 64640
13 Jul 2007
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Is this completely free ? What is the $0 balance about? Are there conditions that we might get cherged because of our trading actions on this web site?
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Cenimar
13 Jul 2007
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You can trade on the Prediction Market for free. Everyone has a $0 Cash Account balance unless they win a contest or deposit money. You can see full fee details at: https://www.cenimar.com/fees.jsp
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agent 64921
16 Jul 2007
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What are chances of winning a scholarships?
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Cenimar
17 Jul 2007
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Good question. There are a few thousand people who sign up with Cenimar every month. However, there are probably only about 500 'active traders' for any one month. So if all those traders had an equal chance of success you'd probably have a 1 in 500 chance. But you are not likely to win a prize by chance - you are much more likely to win if you trade smart and often.
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agent 64948
17 Jul 2007
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how to get scholarship money.
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Tosin Oshin
25 Jul 2007
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i am a new user of cenimar and i want to know how to make a quick money from this market and how to get a scholarship money.please somebody should help me.
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agent 66061
25 Jul 2007
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The impending depletion of energy from the earth will lead to rapid research and the development of a world-wide renewable energy system.
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agent 68910
7 Aug 2007
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i'm truly desperate for scholarship money. my dad is disabled due to heart disease and my mom works full time, as do I, but I am still unable to pay for my education.
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Freed
9 Aug 2007
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To anyone with anyreal knowledge of this forum, I have just read through a considerable ammount of the forum since this place started, (it was different than this forum so I am not sure where I was? THere was a lot of posts about the exchange and maximum buying rates growing so if anyone knows where I was please let me know.) but my actual comment that I would like to make is from what I have read this place seems to hit considerable inflation similar to the current USD. Has this affected any of the leaders at all or does it just seem to be obsorbed by trading knowledge and savy? MY first post so sorry if I was unclear.
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BIGC4UNC
9 Aug 2007
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You were probably in the Currency Exchange forum.
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Freed
10 Aug 2007
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Cenimar - In a discussion on the prediction exchange you stated something about selling bundles back to cenimar. What is this all about?
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Cenimar
10 Aug 2007
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Signup as a market maker for access to the full documentation.
A Bundle is one Share of each Option in a given Contract. Market makers can buy and sell Bundles to Cenimar for I$10. They will never make any money by holding these options - since they earn exactly I$10 when the contract settles. Market makers make money by reselling the Shares in the Bundle to other traders.
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Freed
10 Aug 2007
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When a contract settles do you buy the winning options back from people for 10 intel dollars?
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Cenimar
10 Aug 2007
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Basically, yes.
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Freed
12 Aug 2007
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WHat do you mean basically?? ANd also when contracts go past the expected settle date do the contracts still trade and then settle abruptly or does that contract become void?
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Cenimar
13 Aug 2007
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We prefer to use the word 'exchange' rather than 'buy' for the settlement process. But the effect is the same.
We go out of our way to point out that settlement dates are out best estimate and in some cases the actual settlement date is significantly different. However, since the target date is normally unchanged, the contract will close normally once the final data becomes available.
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agent 70340
17 Sep 2007
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People exactly 800 years from now on the meteriod will crash on the earth. Would believe such a theory?
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agent 70552
20 Sep 2007
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I am a new user of cenimar and i want to know how to make a quick money from this market and how to get a scholarship money.please somebody should help me.
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agent 73723
3 Nov 2007
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Just out of curiosity. Where does the funding come from for the awards? Thank you.
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Cenimar
5 Nov 2007
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Troy Studios - the company that runs Cenimar.
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agent 74707
16 Nov 2007
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I feel like I'm in a different world I don't know what;s going on. Cenimar please explain
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Agent 08
22 Nov 2007
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I'm new using the cenimar and i'm confuse..is this like a stock company in a way? and can someone explain to me how it works?
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agent 75658
28 Nov 2007
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i need some help with this i feel like im reding china
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agent 75658
28 Nov 2007
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can someone tell me how this work please
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agent 75711
28 Nov 2007
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I am new too i try to find a way to make money
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agent 76859
5 Dec 2007
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Please tell me how to make money.....?
I wanna be a rich boy.
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agent 75502
12 Dec 2007
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I'm still not very clear about this Cenimar market trading. I hope with time it wold be clearer. Thanks
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agent 79928
1 Feb 2008
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Can someone let me know what this is because I have know idea. I made a bet(i think)!
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agent 80209
9 Feb 2008
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How can I be qualify to particiapate in this contest ?
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agent 80660
22 Feb 2008
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how to participate in the contest for scholarships in uk universities
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agent 26097
3 Mar 2008
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Is the $400 prize going to become larger soon?
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agent 81917
19 Mar 2008
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I'm still not very clear about this Cenimar market trading. I hope with time it wold be clearer. Thanks
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agent 81918
19 Mar 2008
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is this contest a joke?...or is there actually a contest?..
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agent 82760
29 Mar 2008
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ditto with all the confused ppls
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agent 82805
2 Apr 2008
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Alright... I'm only gonna explain this once... (and I'll explain it how I think it is, feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.)
Even though this website is advertised on scholarship pages, there's nothing specifically noted for scholarships. There's a way for lucky people to win a little bit of cash - by no means a Get rich quick or Earn all the money I need for college or anything like that.
Think like the stock market. You might go and buy 100 shares of GOOGL for $600/share (if you're rich), hoping the per-share value will increase. Same concept here... except the stocks are actually predictions of future events (i.e. President Bush's approval rating). Each option for each of the predictions can be considered it's own stock. The value will go up and down as time goes on, so of course, buy low and sell high. When the prediction comes due (i.e. Bush's approval rating as of April 15th or whatever it is...)... and the results are available (i.e. 35%)... - the winning option becomes worth $10 per share, and the losing options become worth $0 per share. So, in the interest of making money, you don't want to buy for $9.95 per share... because if you're right, you're earning... a virtual nickel per share.
It's a virtual stock market... and if you do very well (i.e. win the contests by making a lot of virtual money), there's an option to win some actual cash. If you don't understand how the system of buying and selling works... you're not going to win actual cash.
So. First goal is to learn how to do well at the markets. Once you get that down... THEN you can worry about winning money.
Again, everyone else, feel free to correct me if I'm wrong on any of this. Just trying to help out the confused newbies (even though I'm a newbie myself, but I've played games like this before.)
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agent 84109
8 Apr 2008
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i don't really know what i am doing but hey i cant lose anything. I have for sure bought some sares so well lets see if i get lucky. please help me understands this a lot better.
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agent 82624
20 Apr 2008
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what's the purpose of trading?
how is this intel dollar thing different from forex?
what is intel dollar anyway?
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agent 85498
2 May 2008
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how do i do the prediction market
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agent 88776
10 Jun 2008
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Im lost
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agent 89665
27 Jun 2008
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How do I start trading?
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agent 91555
19 Jul 2008
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why will it not allow me to enter my space information
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priscilla019
21 Jul 2008
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Do you think if Barack Obama becomes president, what do you think people who disagree with his win do?
I think that if he becomes president people will try to harm him or his family in order for him to step down.
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agent 92304
27 Jul 2008
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I am really desprate to scholarship. I don't have family.I am an immigrate and I don't know what to do and I know it is unbelievablity hard to for me to get any fund, however I pray to God to help me
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agent 91495
28 Jul 2008
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how can one sell goods here?is that possible?and also how can someone buy currency here.
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agent 95443
27 Aug 2008
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hello
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| 181 records found. |
| Click on a pen icon to view a complete thread including archived entries or to add an entry (reply) to the thread. |
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