• Prediction Market

  A Prediction Market allows traders to try to predict the answer to something that is going to occur in the future, or perhaps something that has already occurred but for which the answer is not yet known.

• Contract

  A Prediction Contract defines what is being predicted. It specifies the type of data being predicted and the date for which the prediction is being made. It also specified who will provide the official answer to the prediction and when that answer can be expected.

• Option

  There will always be more than one possible answer for any Contract.

  It's like a multiple-choice question: the possible answers form a set of Options. Each Option is essentially a prediction (one possible answer) for the associated Contract.

• Share

  A Share is associated with a particular Option.

  When you buy a Share on the Cenimar Prediction Market you are purchasing the prediction that the associated Option will be correct.

Note that the links shown on the following examples do not work. They simply represent a sample of what the real forms look like.

Get a list of available contracts by selecting Available Contracts from the main menu as shown:

The list of Contracts might look something like the following:

Contract Description Target Date Approximate Settle Date Duration State Vol. Mkt. Cap. (I$) Options President Bush - approval rating 1 May 2006 5 May 2006 1 Month open 227 6,358 Options Survivor Panama (exile island) - winner 14 May 2006 14 May 2006 Series open 139 5,401 Options Human Bird Flu - Worldwide deaths in 2006 1 Jan 2007 1 Jan 2007 1 Year open 517 22,203 3 contracts found

Select the Contract you want to work with by clicking the word Options at the left side of the table.

Option Minimum Prediction Maximum Vol. Last Price Bid Price (Buy) Ask Price (Sell) Est. Trade [A] 40.2 <= target % 30 1.27 0.85 1.27 8 % Trade [B] 37.96 <= target % < 40.2 60 2.96 0.96 1.20 19 % Trade [C] 35.72 <= target % < 37.96 71 4.00 4.00 25 % Trade [D] 33.48 < target % < 35.72 32 3.80 3.64 3.80 24 % Trade [E] 31.24 < target % <= 33.48 29 2.30 2.00 2.30 15 % Trade [F] 29.0 < target % <= 31.24 20 0.77 0.77 1.70 5 % Trade [G] target % <= 29.0 26 0.60 0.60 1.07 4 %

This table is a list of optional answers (Options) for a Contract that predicts President Bush's approval rating on 1 May 2006.

For example, option B predicts that his approval rating will lie between 37.96% and 40.2%.

Decide which Option you want to buy or sell and click the Trade link on the left side of the option description.

This action will open the Trade form.

Action Select One... Buy Sell Select Buy or Sell to place an order to buy or sell shares in the above contract and option. Quantity: Specify how many shares you wish to buy or sell. Order: Market Order Select Market Order if you don't wish to specify the price at which you buy or sell and you are willing to accept whatever price is offered on the market. Limit   I$ Select Limit and enter a price if you wish to specify the minimum price (per share) you will sell or the maximum price (per share) at which you will buy. Timing: Day Only Good Until Cancelled Immediate or Cancel Day only means process the order within the next 24 hours from now or cancel it. Immediate or Cancel means process the order within the next 5 minutes from now or cancel it. Cancel Order

You saw that the bid and ask prices were I$0.96 and I$1.20 respectively.

So if you placed a market order to purchase 5 shares you might expect that the cost would be about I$1.20 per share for a total cost of I$6.00. To place such an order you would fill out the form as follows:

Action Buy Select Buy or Sell to place an order to buy or sell shares in the above contract and option. Quantity: Specify how many shares you wish to buy or sell. Order: Market Order Select Market Order if you don't wish to specify the price at which you buy or sell and you are willing to accept whatever price is offered on the market. Limit   I$ Select Limit and enter a price if you wish to specify the minimum price (per share) you will sell or the maximum price (per share) at which you will buy. Timing: Day Only Good Until Cancelled Immediate or Cancel Day only means process the order within the next 24 hours from now or cancel it. Immediate or Cancel means process the order within the next 5 minutes from now or cancel it. Cancel Order

Click the Review Order button (on the real form, not the example form above!) to make sure there are no errors in your order.

For example, there would be an error if you tried to sell Shares you don't own.

If an error occurs, you can probably change your order to fix the problem.

The review form looks something like:

Trade details Action Buy Quantity 5 Order MARKET Timing Day Only   Cancel Order

If you are happy with the trade click Place Order to start the trade process.

If you need to make some changes to your order, click Change Order and you'll go back to the first trade form where you can make changes.

Remember that placing an order for a trade is not the same as buying or selling a Stock. Before your order can be filled there must be an open order from another trader who is willing to accept your price. If that is the case then your order will be filled which means that the actual exchange of shares between you and the other trader has occurred.

You saw that the bid and ask prices were I$0.96 and I$1.20 respectively. This means that someone is willing to buy shares for I$0.96 and someone is willing to sell Shares for I$1.20.

You have a few choices to make. If you want to sell soon then you may have to offer your stock for sale at less than I$1.20. (The lowest sale offer always trades first.)

However, if you are willing to wait longer, you can offer your shares for more than I$1.20 and hope that the existing $1.20 offer will trade first and will then expose your higher offer.

Lets say that you are going to try to sell 2 shares at $1.10 (for a quick sale). You would fill in the trade form as follows:

Action Sell Select Buy or Sell to place an order to buy or sell shares in the above contract and option. Quantity: Specify how many shares you wish to buy or sell. Order: Market Order Select Market Order if you don't wish to specify the price at which you buy or sell and you are willing to accept whatever price is offered on the market. Limit   I$ Select Limit and enter a price if you wish to specify the minimum price (per share) you will sell or the maximum price (per share) at which you will buy. Timing: Good Until Cancelled Day only means process the order within the next 24 hours from now or cancel it. Immediate or Cancel means process the order within the next 5 minutes from now or cancel it. Cancel Order

Note that we selected Good Until Cancelled on the form in case the trade takes longer than one day to complete. The good till cancelled order will remain active for about 30 days before it is expired.

If an order expires then it is no longer available for trading.

Keep your eyes on the current bid and ask prices. Prices can change fast and if they go in the wrong direction it can leave your offer untraded.

Remember that you can always cancel any (part of an) order that is not filled. (Go to your My Order Status page and click Cancel next to any open order.) So you can cancel one order and place a new one if necessary.

If you accidentally try to sell more shares than you own, the system will automatically cancel the invalid order when it comes up to trade.